Psych! No hike.
With all the prognostication of an interest rate increase happening from Fed watchers and certain economists, I feel a sense of Deja Vu for previously expected rate hikes in this business cycle. There...
View ArticleCommodities slump as global confidence slips
Commodities, largely a barometer of global economic activity, are slumping in price. The lack of confidence in the future, driven by China’s economic weakness amidst a weakening global backdrop, seems...
View ArticleDon’t buy the dips. Sell the rallies.
It’s not uncommon for bull market opportunities to be exploited by buying dips in prices. This is not one of them. The bull market in equities is at least on pause, but in all likelihood over. The...
View ArticleIt may be the worst time in US history to buy real estate
The prevailing belief that helped to spark the last housing crisis was that homes are an investment. That price will keep going higher. We’re now 8 years out of the peak of the last housing bubble....
View ArticleS&P 500 may hit 1,000 before it makes a new high
Deflation is in the air. It’s gutting the prices of raw materials, emerging markets, junk bonds and starting to catch up to equities. It’s going to get ugly The journey up was fast and fortuitous,...
View ArticleThe Fed has zero credibility until it raises rates
A lot of hot air, but no substance. That’s what’s been emanating out of the mouths of Federal Reserve officials over the two years about the direction of interest rates — with no follow through of...
View ArticleInflection point in S&P 500 reached
We’re not out of the woods. If anything the latest rally’s staying power is about to be tested. Given how heavy the chart looks, I am inclined to think the path of least resistance remains lower. Only...
View ArticleUS dollar strength knocking commodities down
An unusually strong jobs report, which saw seniors take the lion’s share of the new jobs, caused an enormous continuation of the recent US dollar rally. The move knocked commodities down, causing the...
View ArticleGold may be closing in on a bear market bottom
As we approach extremes in bearish sentiment, the number of gold ounces promised per contract (on the Comex at least), relative strength and the dollar rallies on the promise of a tightening cycle — I...
View ArticleCommodities crash below 2002 lows
Prices of commodities tend to reflect underlying global economic health. With the recent crash below 2002 lows (as priced by the Bloomberg Commodity Index), concerns are mounting that the world is...
View ArticleCrude’s crash could cause conviction crisis
Oil prices haven’t been this low since 2009. Energy stocks are collapsing, credit markets are rattled and the commodities complex is capitulating. What does it all mean? Commodities, and especially...
View ArticleDeflation taking control
Equities look heavy. Commodities beaten to a pulp. High yield rolling over. This is the beginning of a bigger mess if something doesn’t change.
View ArticleStocks, dollar topping. Commodities closer to bottom.
It’s my opinion that the stock market rally, which lasted from early 2009 until late 2014 by many accounts, is largely over. Charts show a consolidation churning over the last year that gives reason to...
View ArticleThis time it’s different
The last time the market crashed, commodities were booming until they weren’t — and then equities tanked even more. This time commodities are ahead of the business cycle as represented by equities. At...
View ArticleChina halts, dollar faults, buyers bolt
Storms are brewing. The wind will carry them from the east to the west. Be careful out there. Thursday will be another difficult day in stocks and risky credit markets. The dollar is no longer being...
View ArticleAn open letter to Barracuda Networks (CUDA) management
I am a recent investor in Barracuda Networks (CUDA). Needless to say the earnings miss and subsequent market reaction between Thursday evening and market close on Friday was quite disconcerting....
View ArticleGold’s 2015 performance in various currencies (chart)
The Brazilian Real was walloped and the dollar was clearly a standout winner. Gold’s relative underperformance shows against US dollars that the US dollar is still seen as a safe haven currency. Until...
View ArticleEnergy falls, stocks mauled
There’s a deflationary wind that’s been blowing this way since late 2014. It’s been strengthening since the August 24th intraday market crash in the US. And now I think it is really picking up. What...
View ArticleSeesaw market creates opportunities in volatility
There is a lot of emotion charging the market, creating exaggerated moves both up and down. One day everything is fixed, the next everything is broken. Manic depression wouldn’t even begin to...
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